What Markets can teach us

Markets are humbling.

As an intelligent - even extremely intelligent - young analyst. No matter how good she is. There will be decisions she misjudges. 

There are many uncertainties in markets and as I’ve referred to in my aphorisms - and others - one of the only certainties are the uncertainties.

The mental mindset to deal with those uncertainties and still make decisions - that have great weight as measures in millions or billions of dollars - takes training. By the time a young person forms into an adult much of that mindset may already be settled although more can be trained and the mindset can be continually worked upon.

This resilience or even antifragility (where you thrive on the uncertainty)  to deal with this in typical financial markets turns out to be useful for COVID.

There are uncertainties with COVID, tail (small but with large effects) risks, but decisions have to be made and may turn out to be wrong. Yet, you will have to make them.

Many analysts turn out not to be cut out for markets and investing as the strain on the mental mindset is too much. Unsurprisingly, COVID has caused strain on the mental health of many I know but there are lessons to be learnt for dealing with such risks.

• Rely and assess the data. (see previous thoughts on forecasting and decision making).

• Change mind if needed and reassess.

• Don’t let the weight of the decision damage you.

• You can control, what you can control.

• What you can not control - you have to make peace with - as it is out of your control.

The same can be said for living with many aspects of special needs (disability) or other circumstances…

Here’s a piece on finding insights in the ordinary or even “boring” from travels with autism: Mindfulness and trains and here on what do you “see” when travelling on trains and buses

My book of aphorisms

Previous blogs on forecasting and decision making