The Great Quitting, many industries are going to be hard hit

  • The great quitting is impacting all industries

  • People in bad jobs have realised they are bad jobs and are not going back

  • People remember how they were treated before

  • Many business/organisations barely work even with low labour prices

  • This is a massive challenge to eg theatre, truck drivers, cheap food retail etc.

  • Well-paid jobs also have good non-monetary benefits, are basically good jobs

  • This strengthens the case for certain Big Businesses eg tech, high skilled services

I’m having thoughts on the great quitting. No one is quite sure what is going on. But I am moved by this idea for US (and EU) workforce that low wage workers now can see how crap their jobs were and the current level of incentives is not enough - way not enough - to induce them back to work. It combines these observations:

Status Quo bias. We get stuck in a rut until we get knocked out of this rut by an outside force.

Workers in crappy jobs did not fully appreciate how crap those jobs were until they stopped doing them.


This we can see on the study on commuting patterns.  See eg economist Tim Hardford here on how people needed to be forced to change commuting patterns to realise their main commute was flawed. 

 

Harford draws a different conclusion on remote work patterns, but he offers no comment on what I see as the potentially more major observation 


“ A few hours of disruption were enough to make them realise that they had been doing commuting wrong their entire adult lives.”


This is not about “remote” but about these workers now can see how crap their jobs were and the current level of incentives is not enough - way not enough - to induce them back to work.


It’s not only pay/incentives now but how they were treated before…


You can see this in what Alice Saville has said on the “theatre hiring crisis” she writes:


As an anonymous senior backstage professional who’s struggling to hire technical roles put it, “It’s a perfect storm. People were made redundant during the pandemic and have found other roles. People have retired. And people who are still working in theatre don’t want to work the same hours as before, because the working conditions are worse and the money is less.” When the pandemic hit, theatres made redundancies swiftly and often painfully: many chose not to take advantage of the furlough scheme which would have allowed them to retain staff. And now, they’re feeling the burn. They’re committed to staging productions planned before the pandemic hit, but often with less money and less time. And their once-dedicated permanent staff have been replaced with a scramble to find workers, often on short-term contracts.

TV and film opened up before theatre, and they soaked up large numbers of talented technicians. Not everyone has fallen into new jobs they actually want to keep longterm. But workers who want to return are faced with a stark choice: stick with their secure non-theatre job, or chance it on a badly-paid, short-term theatre contract that may not be followed up by more work. One anonymous designer explained that a leading Scottish theatre can’t persuade its casuals to return after it programmed a series of short run works coming out of the pandemic: “it’s heartbreaking to me that there are workers getting more out of a full-time job in a supermarket chain than they do by going back to coming back to this industry.”

Where salaried roles are being offered, they can’t hope to compete with other sectors. Leeds Playhouse are currently advertising a senior lighting technician job at £18,000 – a surprisingly low salary for a role that requires a high level of experience and specific expertise. Meanwhile, the average salary for a professional electrician is £35,000, and a lighting technician in film or TV can hope for a similar or higher rate – as can similarly experienced staff in other departments of many theatres. As one designer said of the role: “the application package for the role talks in detail about the importance of diversity but we’ve seen again and again and again that the biggest barrier to diversity backstage is money.”

The current situation definitely isn’t the “building back better” scenario a lot of people hoped for during the pandemic.

Alice Saville here.

I can also tell you that London based electricians can earn much more and have a better time than #35K at the moment.

One counter argument is… was it not the furlough money? But, this doesn;t seem to be true:

“...Earlier this year many people insisted that enhanced unemployment benefits were reducing the incentive to accept jobs. But those extra benefits were eliminated in many states as early as June, and nationally in early September; this cutoff doesn’t seem to have had any measurable effect on employment or labor force participation. …”

 

Possibly you can argue this:

 

“...Another story, which is harder to refute, says that the extensive aid families received during the pandemic left many with more cash on hand than usual, giving them the financial space to be choosier about their next job…”

 

Both Paul Krugman in the NYT.  

 

If this insight is correct and not fully appreciated then this is the start of a transition in human capital…

 And at least for theatre, I am not hopeful at the moment and for a whole array of industries, I am very uncertain how this pans out.

UK government behavioural insights team secret report on NetZero

This fascinating "secret report"* from the UK government behavioural insights team on #NetZero "principles for successful behaviour change initiatives". "When we view ‘behaviour change’ narrowly as an exercise in asking citizens to make different choices, the scale of change required to reach Net Zero is daunting, and an enormous political challenge. Moreover, the evidence from past case studies and decades of behavioural science research shows that awareness-raising and calls to action will not get us there. Though everyone has a degree of agency in changing their behaviour, and well-crafted messages from government can certainly be influential, behaviour is simply too profoundly driven by factors in the environment rather than in hearts and minds. As it stands, low-carbon behaviours are often more costly, less convenient, less available, less enjoyable, and rarely the default choice.

But this is ultimately an opportunity, because the more politically feasible approach is also the far more effective approach – to move further upstream and change these contextual factors. By focusing less on individual behaviour, towards bold policy targeting choice environments, institutions, businesses, and markets, it becomes an exercise in ‘world building’ more than ‘behaviour change’ per se. ...

...There are various degrees to which public engagement will be necessary, from more passive to more active (acceptance of policy or infrastructural changes; willing adoption of new technologies; or direct individual action). Building a compelling and positive narrative, with clear asks, can help to do this effectively, despite communications on their own tending to have a very modest impact on behaviour change. ...

...we do not have all the answers and evidence on ‘what works’ is continuing to grow. It will be more critical than ever to maintain an agenda of evidence-generating policy, as well as evidence-based policy: testing as we go and trialling new approaches. Behavioural science is far from exhausted, with many original ideas waiting to explored. ...

If we can impart one lesson, the first law of behaviour change would be this: reduce the burden of action for the greatest number.

Report in pdf here.


*This is a public domain license, but note: ... A government spokesperson said: “This was an academic research paper, not government policy. We have no plans whatsoever to dictate consumer behaviour in this way. For that reason, our net zero strategy published yesterday contained no such plans.”

And therefore the report is no longer available on the government website making the report a sort of "secret". Story here:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/20/meat-tax-and-frequent-flyer-levy-advice-dropped-from-uk-net-zero-strategy

Alex Edmans responds to Tariq Fancy ESG critique

There is now a substantive response to Tariq Fancy from Alex Edmans. Jon Hale of Morningstar had a small one, but Alex’s dives in depth and extends and expands upon Tariq’s own basketball analogy.

“...So there’s much to like about the basketball analogy. But it breaks down in two important ways. First, basketball is a zero-sum game. One team can’t win without the other team losing. But business isn’t zero-sum. Fancy argues the analogy of two basketball teams is two rival companies. Yet the concept of “coopetition” has existed for over a century, where industry competitors can not only compete with each other to grab a greater slice of the pie, but also cooperate to grow the pie, for example by improving industry standards and sharing best practice. And the relevant analogy isn’t to a company and its rivals, but to a company and its stakeholders. Unlike in basketball, where sportsmanship to your opponent can cost you points, “sportsmanship” to your stakeholders can grow the pie for the benefit of both. This isn’t just wishful thinking; it’s based on rigorous evidence. One of my studies showed that, over a 28-year period, companies that treat their employees well outperformed their peers in total shareholder returns by 2.3–3.8% per year — that’s 89–184% compounded….

...The second limitation of the analogy is that regulation is easy in basketball — referees can spot fouls, perhaps aided by video replays. In business, regulation can address measurable issues such as wages and carbon emissions….

More here in this blog essay from Alex.

Climate, political economy challenges

There were many superb questions called at the Sustainability UnConference. I will be detailing more later on the whole event. The circles I hosted were about the (un)success or not of social/political movements and what questions or change theories of the political economy were there.

 

My brief notes are: 

 

-XR is different to anti-slavery, LGBQT+, suffragettes, and minority/black rights because the “ask” is less clear (cf. Ban slavery, a clear ask]

-[Open] Does a protest movement need an ask?

-Policy(Overton) window (and influenced on corporates) may have moved, and that would be a success

-While energised some young, it has antagonised other population segments

-Degrowth not considered by majority of economists/policy makers as viable

-XR opens doors for change makers to influence corporates, policy

-cf. Outrage and Stonewall, (LGBTQ+)

-XR  negative - is ZR now chipping out change makers and entrenching incumbents.

 

(Novel) are “leaders” emergent properties of complex systems. (eg a Greta would have emerged somehow in any case)

 

Cf. CFCs/Ozone, Nuclear.

 

Note how green party in Germany is now mainstream

 

Four theories/frameworks to note:

-Overton Window

-Swing Voter

-Median Voter

-Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

 

And two challenging economic realities:

Economic growth will be needed to lift the poor (intra and inter-country) our of poverty

Decarbonisation across all areas of human life (Land/Food, Industry, Power, Building, Transport etc.) needed and low-carbon growth is not (yet) reality in most sectors.

 

Mainstream Economic Policy:

Carbon tax/price solves 80% of problem (eg Jasion Furman view)

(Vast) Innovation needed (subsidy helpful for early stage tech)

Standards can help raise the bar

 

Challenging political realities:

Poor/Middle class don’t want to pay (maybe no one wants to pay)

Poor countries don’t want to pay vs rich countries

[Open] Swing voter unlikely converting soon

[Open] Median voter moving slowly

 

[Open] Arrow suggests a plurality needs to be an answer.

 

Median voter might suggest that education, activism in converting population may work. May push both window and policy in more green directions.

 

Swing voter might suggest that this is not possible as swing voter not being converted on climate matters. Geography of the swing voter also important.

 

(It did not occur to me so clearly until this conversation that the tactics for converting “swing” voters are likely different to the “median” voter strategy)

 

Alternative strategy: ignore/bypass voters

Carbon pricing/tax not viable to majority of swing and current median voters. (This does not ignore voters but essential complies with both views here)

Utilise “Industrial Strategy” policy for the major sectors that can slip by voters 

eg raise standards, subsidise and go super large on innovation investment (but can govt do this? And what about health, education etc)

May be slow, but might be a political economy solution ?? (One that elites and technocrat always use and so at risk of backlash)

 

[Aside] Importance of weak social ties or social network [cf. VC cf. UK COVID vaccine strategy]

Does XR/activist movement have a policy strategy?

Can economists propose anything better than carbon price?

Must it be techno-optimism that saves us?

 

 

[Open] Limits to markets

[Open] Do we need strong political vision