The Great Quitting, many industries are going to be hard hit

  • The great quitting is impacting all industries

  • People in bad jobs have realised they are bad jobs and are not going back

  • People remember how they were treated before

  • Many business/organisations barely work even with low labour prices

  • This is a massive challenge to eg theatre, truck drivers, cheap food retail etc.

  • Well-paid jobs also have good non-monetary benefits, are basically good jobs

  • This strengthens the case for certain Big Businesses eg tech, high skilled services

I’m having thoughts on the great quitting. No one is quite sure what is going on. But I am moved by this idea for US (and EU) workforce that low wage workers now can see how crap their jobs were and the current level of incentives is not enough - way not enough - to induce them back to work. It combines these observations:

Status Quo bias. We get stuck in a rut until we get knocked out of this rut by an outside force.

Workers in crappy jobs did not fully appreciate how crap those jobs were until they stopped doing them.


This we can see on the study on commuting patterns.  See eg economist Tim Hardford here on how people needed to be forced to change commuting patterns to realise their main commute was flawed. 

 

Harford draws a different conclusion on remote work patterns, but he offers no comment on what I see as the potentially more major observation 


“ A few hours of disruption were enough to make them realise that they had been doing commuting wrong their entire adult lives.”


This is not about “remote” but about these workers now can see how crap their jobs were and the current level of incentives is not enough - way not enough - to induce them back to work.


It’s not only pay/incentives now but how they were treated before…


You can see this in what Alice Saville has said on the “theatre hiring crisis” she writes:


As an anonymous senior backstage professional who’s struggling to hire technical roles put it, “It’s a perfect storm. People were made redundant during the pandemic and have found other roles. People have retired. And people who are still working in theatre don’t want to work the same hours as before, because the working conditions are worse and the money is less.” When the pandemic hit, theatres made redundancies swiftly and often painfully: many chose not to take advantage of the furlough scheme which would have allowed them to retain staff. And now, they’re feeling the burn. They’re committed to staging productions planned before the pandemic hit, but often with less money and less time. And their once-dedicated permanent staff have been replaced with a scramble to find workers, often on short-term contracts.

TV and film opened up before theatre, and they soaked up large numbers of talented technicians. Not everyone has fallen into new jobs they actually want to keep longterm. But workers who want to return are faced with a stark choice: stick with their secure non-theatre job, or chance it on a badly-paid, short-term theatre contract that may not be followed up by more work. One anonymous designer explained that a leading Scottish theatre can’t persuade its casuals to return after it programmed a series of short run works coming out of the pandemic: “it’s heartbreaking to me that there are workers getting more out of a full-time job in a supermarket chain than they do by going back to coming back to this industry.”

Where salaried roles are being offered, they can’t hope to compete with other sectors. Leeds Playhouse are currently advertising a senior lighting technician job at £18,000 – a surprisingly low salary for a role that requires a high level of experience and specific expertise. Meanwhile, the average salary for a professional electrician is £35,000, and a lighting technician in film or TV can hope for a similar or higher rate – as can similarly experienced staff in other departments of many theatres. As one designer said of the role: “the application package for the role talks in detail about the importance of diversity but we’ve seen again and again and again that the biggest barrier to diversity backstage is money.”

The current situation definitely isn’t the “building back better” scenario a lot of people hoped for during the pandemic.

Alice Saville here.

I can also tell you that London based electricians can earn much more and have a better time than #35K at the moment.

One counter argument is… was it not the furlough money? But, this doesn;t seem to be true:

“...Earlier this year many people insisted that enhanced unemployment benefits were reducing the incentive to accept jobs. But those extra benefits were eliminated in many states as early as June, and nationally in early September; this cutoff doesn’t seem to have had any measurable effect on employment or labor force participation. …”

 

Possibly you can argue this:

 

“...Another story, which is harder to refute, says that the extensive aid families received during the pandemic left many with more cash on hand than usual, giving them the financial space to be choosier about their next job…”

 

Both Paul Krugman in the NYT.  

 

If this insight is correct and not fully appreciated then this is the start of a transition in human capital…

 And at least for theatre, I am not hopeful at the moment and for a whole array of industries, I am very uncertain how this pans out.

UK government behavioural insights team secret report on NetZero

This fascinating "secret report"* from the UK government behavioural insights team on #NetZero "principles for successful behaviour change initiatives". "When we view ‘behaviour change’ narrowly as an exercise in asking citizens to make different choices, the scale of change required to reach Net Zero is daunting, and an enormous political challenge. Moreover, the evidence from past case studies and decades of behavioural science research shows that awareness-raising and calls to action will not get us there. Though everyone has a degree of agency in changing their behaviour, and well-crafted messages from government can certainly be influential, behaviour is simply too profoundly driven by factors in the environment rather than in hearts and minds. As it stands, low-carbon behaviours are often more costly, less convenient, less available, less enjoyable, and rarely the default choice.

But this is ultimately an opportunity, because the more politically feasible approach is also the far more effective approach – to move further upstream and change these contextual factors. By focusing less on individual behaviour, towards bold policy targeting choice environments, institutions, businesses, and markets, it becomes an exercise in ‘world building’ more than ‘behaviour change’ per se. ...

...There are various degrees to which public engagement will be necessary, from more passive to more active (acceptance of policy or infrastructural changes; willing adoption of new technologies; or direct individual action). Building a compelling and positive narrative, with clear asks, can help to do this effectively, despite communications on their own tending to have a very modest impact on behaviour change. ...

...we do not have all the answers and evidence on ‘what works’ is continuing to grow. It will be more critical than ever to maintain an agenda of evidence-generating policy, as well as evidence-based policy: testing as we go and trialling new approaches. Behavioural science is far from exhausted, with many original ideas waiting to explored. ...

If we can impart one lesson, the first law of behaviour change would be this: reduce the burden of action for the greatest number.

Report in pdf here.


*This is a public domain license, but note: ... A government spokesperson said: “This was an academic research paper, not government policy. We have no plans whatsoever to dictate consumer behaviour in this way. For that reason, our net zero strategy published yesterday contained no such plans.”

And therefore the report is no longer available on the government website making the report a sort of "secret". Story here:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/20/meat-tax-and-frequent-flyer-levy-advice-dropped-from-uk-net-zero-strategy

Alex Edmans responds to Tariq Fancy ESG critique

There is now a substantive response to Tariq Fancy from Alex Edmans. Jon Hale of Morningstar had a small one, but Alex’s dives in depth and extends and expands upon Tariq’s own basketball analogy.

“...So there’s much to like about the basketball analogy. But it breaks down in two important ways. First, basketball is a zero-sum game. One team can’t win without the other team losing. But business isn’t zero-sum. Fancy argues the analogy of two basketball teams is two rival companies. Yet the concept of “coopetition” has existed for over a century, where industry competitors can not only compete with each other to grab a greater slice of the pie, but also cooperate to grow the pie, for example by improving industry standards and sharing best practice. And the relevant analogy isn’t to a company and its rivals, but to a company and its stakeholders. Unlike in basketball, where sportsmanship to your opponent can cost you points, “sportsmanship” to your stakeholders can grow the pie for the benefit of both. This isn’t just wishful thinking; it’s based on rigorous evidence. One of my studies showed that, over a 28-year period, companies that treat their employees well outperformed their peers in total shareholder returns by 2.3–3.8% per year — that’s 89–184% compounded….

...The second limitation of the analogy is that regulation is easy in basketball — referees can spot fouls, perhaps aided by video replays. In business, regulation can address measurable issues such as wages and carbon emissions….

More here in this blog essay from Alex.

Speed of technological progress in some areas

Top of mind recently is how fast some parts of technology are going. I think the general reader has glimpses of the splashy news items such as the Space trips by Bezos and Branson, but there are many technology problems which have made huge progress.

I am thinking biological protein folding and what looks like setting up to be another strong decade for biological knowledge. The breakthrough work of Deepmind here is going to herald a step change in how we think about making proteins.

I think developments from the world of blockchain will be surprising. I don’t view anything as standout yet, but maybe smart brains and a lot of money are working in these areas and we have glimpses of possibilities with NFTs and “smart contract” protocols. And the backlash against regulation (see below) is notable.

The vast computing power now available to us when applied to hard problems mixed with machine learning algorithms is going to unleash a whole new way of creating software and software-interactions. And, I think we are on the verge of where a smart mind with no coding knowledge will soon be able to partner with tools to create code and ideas which before only coders of several years experience could do. We have a glimpse of that with GPT-3, and we have an iteration of that with the Deep Mind models for protein folding (noted above) but this recent video from OpenAI about the possibilities of what coding AI can produce based on very simple inputs suggests to me the world is going to change again in the digital space very rapidly.

The interface with the physical world is still behind, although certain parts eg automation and robots are advancing.

I think the general population is also behind and so is the humanities thinking, the social contracts and constructs behind it. While we have eg AI ethics, the people involved with them are narrow, so I hope it does all work out.

Meanwhile, we have all sorts of catastrophes, at a glance:

-Haiti earthquakes
-Afghanistan fighting
-Ethiopian civil war, and likely atrocities
-Rohinyga refugees
-A crisis in South Sudan coming out of a civil war
-Torture and execution from the recent Bolivia government
-the list goes on...and of course, COVID...

A few links from above:
Sudan: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/world/africa/deadly-clashes-threaten-south-sudans-shaky-peace-deal.html
Bolivia:  https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-bolivia-454d1102672f6fbc1e47dab7eca66714
Deepmind: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02025-4
OpenAI Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGUCcjHTmGY&ab_channel=OpenAI
And challenge and details: https://openai.com/blog/openai-codex/