58 speculative propositions and predictions about COVID effects in the long-term.
The relative standing of nations and areas with fewer deaths will rise.
1.1.These are South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong.
1.2.Within areas eg. Germany rises relative to UK, Italy
1.3.Eg California bay area vs Manhattan
Part of this is intersectional with entire sectors. Technology (clusters eg in California) will rise relative. Tech ↑ vs non-Tech.
Tech-enabled businesses ↑ vs non-enable
3.1.Tech skills ↑ all types of coding, digital image manipulation etc.
Healthcare ↑ - all areas - innovation, infrastructure, jobs
Big Business ↑ vs SMEs.
And within sectors. eg On-line food retail vs Hotels
The China v US (and EU) relationship will continue to be tense.
7.1.US will turn more hawkish on China.
Many institutions have been damaged reputationally eg. CDC, WHO. They will not regain that lost reputation.
Boris Johnson status has risen. This is partly being incumbent in time of crisis (Rally Round the Flag, also Germany’s Merkel, France’s Macron). This is partly having survived COVID.
9.1.Trump, China more uncertain on this due to polarisation, but likely still Rally Round Flag effect. My tentative take is ↑ Trump, ↑ China.
Italy in the medium term will seriously debate leaving the EU.
10.1. This assumes Germany continues to resist “coronavirus bonds” which seems likely
10.2. South Korea is now permanently considered more advanced than Italy in most measures of human development. GDP / Capita as first obvious but in almost all areas of state capacity as well. While a known trend this is a significant Asian country overtaking an “old world” European country.
Northern Ireland in the medium term will seriously debate unification with Ireland (Republic)
11.1. Significant chance this happens post Queen dying as Charles is weaker reputation ally and rest of union cares less about NI. While not directly COVID, the virus has magnified those fractures to the interested stakeholders.
Scientists ↑ vs non-scientist.
12.1. This is mainly within biology/medical and engineering and hard sciences. This will not spillover into climate science nor into social science.
12.2. Behavioural scientists of complex systems may ↓ (cf. Taleb) as fail to add to real world debate over lab experiments.
Understanding of statistics ↑ vs Understanding of literature
13.1.Humanities continue to lose ground.
13.2. Certain creatives in lockdown will prove to be super-productive (cf Pushkin)
The young will ↑ dissatisfaction in subsidising the old.
14.1. Acceleration of trend. Trend was apparent before.
Arguments against immigration ↑ (and so immigration ↓)
15.1. except for hazard jobs (eg nursing), and,
15.2. Except unfavoured jobs (eg UK seasonal crop picking)
15.3. Acceleration of trend. See also ↓ Globalisation
15.4. This has complex second and third order effects for areas which continue to allow diversity of thinking and net migration which may ↑ long term (see also cities)
The pie is smaller in medium term.
16.1. More will go to healthcare ↑
16.2. Relative losses for ↓ disabled, minorities, climate, education.
16.3. Expansion of Carbon Tax (Fee or Dividend) is a No Go for at least 5 years for most, if not all, nations.
This relative loss will spur innovation in smaller clusters eg climate, education. As believers in those causes go above and beyond previous efforts.
We will discover transformational climate innovations due to this effect.
18.1.(Personally) I am not optimistic about education processed.
Healthcare spend ↑
19.1. GDP as % healthcare rises in every nation (also cf. Baumol)
19.1.1 US >20%, OECD average trends to 15% in medium term
19.2. Virology research ↑
19.3. Diagnostics ↑
19.4. Research overall ↑
19.4.1. Lab equipment and suppliers to innovation ↑
The cultural pie is smaller.
20.1. Choice will be less.
20.2. Cultural capital ↓ in short-medium term.
20.3. In medium-long term aspects of this recover as adversity spurs creative innovation.
20.3.1. It will be in new forms. Eg Viral Dance moves on Tik Tok.
20.3.2. Re-invention of old forms also likely.
21. Gender Identity battles ↓ (while young vs Old still ↑: see 14.)
21.1. Attention to concerns considered frivolous will fall
22. The sensible progressive left will need new rallying ideas
22.1. Fiscal ideas have been taken by many centre / right parties.
22.2. Most of green new deal ideas will fail at nation level
22.2.1. At state or city level some may survive (see cycling ↑)
23. On-line communities ↑: broad, elite and niche
23.1. Eg. BAP, InterIntellect, Transport Sparks, Facebook Groups
24. Esports ↑ (along with digital entertainment)
25. Divide ↑ between those with strong on-line identities vs not
25.1. Digital natives ↑
26. Social Media ↑ (Twitter ↑↑) vs Mainstream Media ↓
27. High Quality Webcam ↑ (vs embossed business card ↓)
28. Digital Vanity ↑
29. Surveillance ↑
30. FakeNews continues ↑
(eg see attacks on Bill Gates)
31. Small in-person events rise ↑ in status, but are fewer in number.
32. People - if able - will hold more cash.
32.1.This effect will last longer than many think.
33. Companies - if able - will hold more cash.
33.1. This will be a structural change for as long as senior executives have memory of the COVID crisis.
34. Supply chains will be shorter have more redundancy and resiliency, where able. This will make them more expensive and less financially efficient.
34.1. Overall absolute return on equity should fall
35. Knowledge of different cultures ↑ value. This will cross national, sector and company cultures.
35.1. Misunderstanding of culture continues and possibly ↑
36. Travel will be ↓
36.1. Public transport ↓ but cycling ↑ and walking ↑ in cities (cf. City design)
37. Second order travel items ↓ - snorkels, backpacks, luggage
38. Design changes in cities will accelerate.
39. Cooking skills value ↑
40. Attention to food waste ↑ and actual food waste ↓
41. A small but permanent shift to break making, fermenting and home growing skills (not all bread making sticks, but enough will find its a permanent change in habit)
42. Value of choice ↑ applies to food but more generally across all products + services
43. Value of clean air continues to ↑
43.1. Our ability to manage this does not ↑
44. Businesses that can work in all spaces ↑ value
45. People who can work in all spaces ↑ value (and in isolation)
45.1. Also see creative innovation
45.2. Some atypical thrive, some do not
46. An informative newsletter ↑ value
46.1. Applies to blogs by open minded thinkers
46.2. Open minded thinkers ↑ generally
46.3. This does not spur a new golden age of blogs or newsletters because there are not enough of the general population who are open minded cf. 18.1 on education
47. Those who can control the narrative and, or, understand the narrative ↑ value
47.1. Applies to those who understand culture
48. Acceleration of online adoption
48.1.eg Zoom, food delivery, prescription delivery, entertainment etc.
48.2. Short form video, image sharing
49. On demand services ↑ value (Slack, Teams ↑)
49.1.Curbside pick-up, Telemedicine, Webinars
50. Local community connection ↑ value
50.1. NextDoor App, Community Leaders
50.2. While Amazon is obv ↑, so are local shops that have served communities
51. Virtual exercise classes ↑
51.1. Not for everyone, but some of this will stick.
52. Commuting ↓
52.1. People re-evaluate long commute times
53. Health inequity ↑
53.1. Already apparent and rising. cf. Baumol. cf. Deaths of Despair - Deaton et al.
54. Average incomes ↓ but challenge of inequity and intergenerational social mobility remain
55. Income inequity ↑
55.1. We struggle to effectively grow the pie cf. productivity; let alone have fair methods free of “capture” for this
55.2. A pseudo-form of UBI eg easier to obtain disability benefits in some countries becomes a norm
55.3. Both the rise in health and income inequity produces pushback from low-income groups vs elites - forces already in action.
56. Globalisation ↓
56.1. Some off-shore jobs return
56.2. Food security ↑, Other “essentials” have increased localisation
57. Cities ↓ in short-medium term
57.1. This will spur innovation in a complex way over long-term
58. Gum sales continue to falter
58.1. Gum used for in person meeting for “nice” breath, this is ↓
58.2. Same for perfume
My microgrant programme here. More on COVID and climate here. And COVID and vaccine policy here.
COVID Fast Grants programme for researchers looking at COVID, 48 hour decisions. Need to a PI at an academic organisation, if not try Emergent Ventures.